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Exploring Model-Based Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN

by P. Fragkos et al

This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. 

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