In order to mitigate climate change effects, urgent action is required in all sectors of the economy to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the supply side, energy system models (ESMs) have provided useful results, but on the demand side, they lack the degree of accuracy required for proper characterization of the use of energy in households.
To overcome this challenge, the new Causal Modeling will be used to quantitatively analyse human decision making in energy consumption and their reactions to interventions (e.g. policy changes). This will be combined with an innovative FFORMA approach (Feature-based Forecast Model Averaging) which allows multiple different load profiles to be categorised by a set of vectors describing it. The WHY Model will allow to assess the impact of a variety of policies on the energy system directly. All results will be open-source and available via multiple channels.
One of the first actions towards a Causal Model is to define the stakeholder profiles. First results will be soon available to download, until then have a look at our first newsletter describing our profile approach: