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Modelling to better understand and predict household energy demand

What are the reasons that lead citizens to participate in the energy transition?

This briefing contains the main results of the WHY project and meant to inform all whoare interested in learning about the energy transition and policies related to it. The briefing will contain the results of different experiments/use cases in the form of recommendations related to the energy transition and improving the trust in the administration's policies that are being implemented by the different public authorities.

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One of the big difficulties is that energy demand in the residential sector is influenced by a multitude of factors that cannot easily be accounted for in traditional Energy System Models. To overcome this challenge our task is to analyse human decision making in energy consumption and reactions to interventions like policy changes.

WHY is the next step in improving energy demand modelling to forecast and project the domestic sector’s energy consumption. 

The WHY project develops innovative methodologies and a toolkit for short and long-term household energy consumption modelling. Use cases benchmark these models ranging from local to European-wide energy grids. The WHY Toolkit builds on the causality chain to model the energy demand, building on associations between measurable variables.

The WHY Causal Model contributes to improve the understanding of the human decision factors leading to energy demand patterns in the residential sector. These models will be used to create a set of computer programs that form the WHY Toolkit. The Toolkit will be integrated with leading ESMs to develop five use cases that assess different policy scenarios.